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The Club PUBlication  05/29/2023

5/29/2023

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A disappearing act in Alaska
​
Elizabeth Goldbaum
Public Affairs Specialist
Communications and Publishing


Study Area

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Permafrost, as its name implies, should be permanently frozen soil; however, that’s no longer the case.

On a cool August morning almost a decade ago, Miriam Jones found herself in Alaska, standing in a forest filled with seemingly tipsy trees.  Although the leaning, centipede-like black spruce trees looked as if they had enjoyed boozy spirits soon before Jones’ arrival, their story wasn’t so lively. Rather, they leaned because they were literally standing on thawing soil.  ​

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Trees tipping over and dying as ice-rich permafrost thaws in the Innoko National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska.

Underneath much of Alaska’s forests sits permafrost, or permanently frozen soil. “Permafrost is ground that stays frozen year-round for at least two consecutive years,” Jones, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, said.

Permafrost also happens to store a lot of carbon – 1,400 billion metric tons of it- which is more carbon than has ever been released by humans through fossil fuel combustion. “Most permafrost has been frozen for the last several thousand years, even up to hundreds of thousands of years,” Jones said.  

However, that’s starting to change. As the climate warms and permafrost thaws, the atmosphere could get a major injection of carbon dioxide and methane, both powerful greenhouse gases.  Permafrost thaw is a key part of the Administration’s 2022-2026 Arctic Research Plan, which aims to improve the collective impacts of federal agencies in Arctic research.

USGS scientists, like Jones, inform and support the Plan with their research.

   To better understand how permafrost is changing, Jones digs up long, skinny tubes of the frozen soil near the “Drunken Forests” to look for clues to how it formed and what might happen to it in the future. Although her first trip was a decade ago, she’s been back a few times, often returning home with a frozen time capsule to study. 

“Permafrost thaw could really change how we approach infrastructure development in the Arctic,” Jones said, “Not to mention the global impact to climate.” ​

Permafrost’s prowess on land 
A bridge that crosses a creek once filled with golden nuggets is sinking.  Anvil Creek was famous for its treasure during the Alaskan gold rush in the late 1890s, but since then, has sat under a bridge that’s part of the 70-mile-long Nome-Teller Road. This rural highway stretches over 70 miles of remote tundra and links the city of Nome to the Inupiat town of Teller, only 55 miles away from Russia.   

Permafrost "can cause a lot of damage to our infrastructure when it thaws,” the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities states on its website, impacting structures like the bridge over Anvil Creek.  

The department tries to avoid building on permafrost, although that isn’t always an option because the frozen soil hides under 85% of Alaska.

Officials can remove the permafrost and replace it with stable material or use techniques that help keep the ground frozen. For instance, the department installed foam board insulation on top of the Dalton Highway near Alaska’s North Slope to keep it cool during the summer. “The flip side is that it keeps the cold winter out as well, which prevents the cooling that helps to keep the permafrost cold,” the department says.

However, these options are expensive and don’t always work.  Permafrost thaw is also causing coastal erosion, creating dramatic landscapes and forcing some Alaskan residents to relocate their homes. 

​Since the early 2000s, coastal permafrost erosion in the Arctic has increased at 13 of 14 study sites, with observational data extending back approximately 50 years. The erosion coincides with warming temperatures, sea ice reduction, and permafrost thaw. 
​

Permafrost’s perturbations to the atmosphere 
This potential carbon source is a big deal, because for most of human history, permafrost has captured and stored carbon as frozen plant and animal remains, and the amount of stored carbon has been higher than that lost to the atmosphere through decomposition. ​ 

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USGS researcher Benjamin Jones examines a collapsed block of ice-rich permafrost on Barter Island along Alaska's Arctic coast.

   However, as the planet warms, this trend could reverse.   “There are efforts to use soils and forests to store carbon, but permafrost is working in the opposite direction,” Waldrop said. “Land managers want to know how to keep carbon in the ground rather than see it released into the atmosphere.” 

Permafrost secrets revealed 
To understand how thawing permafrost could affect the global carbon cycle, which tracks carbon as it moves between the atmosphere (usually as carbon dioxide) and Earth (trapped in rocks, soils, and the ocean), Jones and her colleagues study both intact permafrost in forests and thawed permafrost from peatlands.  

​Working as a team, they bring back to the lab a core of permafrost, which they extract from the ground with special equipment. Then, they divide the core into different sections based on age. "We want to know how much carbon is in a meter of the core and how quickly it accumulated,” Jones said.​

​In one study, the team used a mass balance model and found that permafrost thaw turned peatlands into net carbon sources for decades following thaw.

The peatlands eventually returned to being net carbon sinks on timescales of multiple centuries to millennia.  

In another study, Jones, Waldrop, and Kristen Manies, an ecologist with USGS, studied permafrost in the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest in Fairbanks, Alaska, and found that when permafrost formed after peat had accumulated, there was a smaller carbon loss than when permafrost and peat formed at the same time. 

​  “Understanding what happened at the site will help to more accurately predict how much carbon is lost under future climate change scenarios when permafrost thaws,” Jones said.   

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Miriam Jones holding a peat core that was extracted from a thawed permafrost bog at the Alaska Permafrost Experiment (APEX) site at Bonanza Creek LTER, Alaska. The boundary between the formerly frozen permafrost plateau and thawed bog is visible in the peat stratigraphy, with the light-colored peat indicated thawed bog.

​Researchers are also looking into impacts from abrupt permafrost thaw, which can happen when warm surface conditions meet permafrost with a high content of ice.

Although abrupt thaw covers a much smaller area than gradual thaw, it thaws a higher volume of ground at once, making its stored carbon likely to decompose and escape to the atmosphere. 

​ One study found that carbon released from a specific area with abrupt permafrost thaw (~2.5 million square kilometers) could provide a similar climate feedback as gradually thawing permafrost from an area that’s 18 million square kilometers. “We are seeing more frequent instances of abrupt thaw now and expect to see that trend continue in the future,” Jones said.  

  In addition to examining the landscape, researchers are also studying what’s happening on a molecular level. For example. Waldrop and others are also looking at DNA stored in permafrost soil. “We can use microbes to see what kind of plant communities existed in Alaska over tens of thousands of years,” Waldrop said.  

​ There’s also evidence that there are microbes active within the frozen permafrost. “There’s still a lot of liquid water in frozen soils, especially as it warms right before thaw” Waldrop said. These microbes are chewing up the carbon-rich organic matter found within the permafrost soils and releasing carbon to the atmosphere, sometimes in the form of methane.  

“The discovery that microbes are active in frozen soils is important because it means that they have been able to transform the chemistry of carbon within the permafrost, which in turn can affect how fast carbon is released to the atmosphere once it thaws,” Waldrop said. 

Waldrop studied when microbe activity and subsequent methane emissions would be highest during permafrost thaw, finding that the highest rates happened soon after thaw and declined over decades.

Permafrost thaw will force more carbon into the atmosphere. Eventually, that carbon will be recaptured and potentially frozen, if the conditions are right, but that reversal will take centuries to millennia. “The timescale does not align with what is necessary for climate mitigation,” Jones said. That means for the immediate future, permafrost thaw will be more of a carbon source than sink. 


​

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A forest tower after a storm at the Alaska Peatland Experiment, a permafrost thaw research site. The tower helps researchers understand the ecosystem’s carbon balance.

Working across agencies on a common goal
USGS scientists continue to closely work with experts from 15 other federal agencies as members of the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee to enhance both the scientific monitoring of and research on local, regional, and global environmental issues in the Arctic.  

As part of the 2022-2026 plan, the USGS was tasked to advance our understanding of processes controlling permafrost dynamics and their impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, and climate feedbacks, among other topics. “Arctic communities are feeling the effects of multiple challenges,” the plan states. It emphasizes unprecedented warming from climate change and thawing permafrost. 

Alaska is filled with amazing, wide-open spaces,” Waldrop said. “But if permafrost continues to thaw on an accelerated timeline, those spaces could dramatically change.” 

​

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The Club PUBlication  05/22/2023

5/22/2023

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You can be realistic as well as positive
​OUTSWIMMING THE SHARKS
HARVEY MACKAY

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Harvey MacKay

​A small boy auditioned with his classmates for a school play.
His mother knew his heart was set on being in the play — just like all the other children hoped — and she feared how he would react if he was not chosen.

On the day the parts were awarded, the little boy’s mother went to the school gates to collect her son. The boy rushed up to her, eyes shining with pride and excitement.

“Guess what, Mom?” he shouted, and then said some words that provide a lesson to us all: “I’ve been chosen to clap and cheer.”

Not everyone gets to play the part they want, but a positive attitude like this fellow’s goes a long way.

I am an eternal optimist.
I firmly believe that there is hardly anything we can’t do if we set our minds to it.

But it also helps to be realistic: I know I am never going to pitch in the World Series, but I can be a player/manager of a top-notch company.

The mind can convince competent people that they are incompetent, or conversely that merely adequate performers are highly talented. Unfortunately, self-doubt and negative attitudes seem to have a more powerful influence on the mind than positive attitudes.

Fight it. I have never met a successful pessimist. Here are some ideas on how.

Savor pleasure.
We are good about experiencing pleasure at special events like parties, but try to focus your attention on pleasant daily things as they occur. Celebrate the little things.

Practice gratitude.
It’s so easy to say thank you, and it can have such a powerful impact. Gratitude should be a continuous attitude.
Have you told the people around you how grateful you are for their roles in your life? You might be surprised at how they respond — perhaps because no one has ever told them they’ve made a difference.

Emphasize the positive.
Attitudes are contagious, and you will be a welcome carrier of this condition. A Harvard Special Health Report published in Positive Psychology found that older people tend to minimize the negative, accept their limitations and use their experience to compensate. The earlier in life that people adopt these practices, the better they sustain a positive attitude.

Surround yourself with positive people.
Negativity makes a person look at the land of milk and honey and see only calories and cholesterol. Also listen to other ideas and give others credit.

Focus on what you get to do.
As the song says, “You can’t always get what you want,” but usually you can get some satisfaction. Focus on small victories as well as major ones.

Practice handling rejection.
If there is anything that can get you down, it’s being constantly rejected. Rejection is a fact of life. It’s going to happen. Don’t take it personally. Learn from it, but don’t wallow in it. Rejection doesn’t have to be permanent.

It’s like the old farmer who was celebrating his 90th birthday.
He had seen it all — the Dust Bowl, years of flooding rains and scorching heat, banks taking back mortgages on every farm in the county. But through it all, he had remained positive and determined, even downright cheerful.

His family and friends pressed him for his secret.

“It ain’t so hard,” he said with a twinkle in his eye. “I just learned early on to cooperate with the inevitable.”

Mackay’s Moral:
Our minds are like a garden; each day you need to weed out the negativity and feed it positively.
​
Harvey Mackay is a Minneapolis businessman. Contact him at 612-378- 6202 or email harvey@mackay.com.

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The Club PUBlication  05/15/2023

5/15/2023

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TRUMP SETS SIGHTS ON BREAKING NEW NORMS
Story by SHANE GOLDMACHER, JONATHAN SWAN, MAGGIE HABERMAN and STEPHANIE LAI • New York Times
• Photo by WILL LANZONI • CNN

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Former president Donald Trump and CNN's Kaitlan Collins faced off at a town-hall event in Manchester, N.H.

In little over an hour, Donald Trump suggested the United States should default on its debts for the first time in history, injected doubt over the country's commitment to defending Ukraine from Russia's invasion, dangled pardons for most of the Capitol rioters convicted of crimes and refused to say he would abide by the results of the next presidential election.

The second-term vision Trump sketched out at a CNN town hall event Wednesday would represent a sharp departure from core American values that have been at the bedrock of the nation for decades: its creditworthiness, its credibility with international allies and its adherence to the rule of law at home.

Trump's provocations were hardly shocking. His time in office was often defined by a rules-don't-apply-to-me approach to governance and a lack of interest in upholding the post-World War II national security order, and at 76 he is not bound to change much.

But his performance nonetheless signaled an escalation of his bid to bend the government to his wishes as he runs again for the White House, only this time with a greater command of the Republican Party's pressure points and a plan to demolish the federal bureaucracy.

The televised event crystallized that the version of Trump who could return to office in 2025 — vowing to be a vehicle of "retribution" — is likely to govern as he did in 2020. In that final year of his presidency, Trump cleared out people perceived as disloyal and promoted those who would fully indulge his instincts — things he did not always do during the first three years of his administration, when his establishmentarian advisers often talked him out of drastic policy changes.

"From my perspective, there was an evolution of Donald Trump over his four years, with 2020 I think being the most dramatic example of him — the real him," said Mark Esper, who served as Trump's defense secretary. "And I suspect that would be his starting point if he were to win office in 2024."

In a statement, Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, dismissed criticisms of the former president, who he said "spoke directly to Americans suffering from the Biden decline and President Trump's desire to bring about security and economic prosperity on Day 1."
He added, "Understandably, this vision is not shared by the failed warmongers, political losers and career bureaucratic hacks — many of whom he fired or defeated — who have created all of America's problems."

At the town hall event, Trump almost cavalierly floated ideas that would reshape the nation's standing in the world, vowing to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours and declining to commit to supporting the country, a U.S. ally that has relied on billions of dollars in aid to hold off the Russian onslaught.

"Do you want Ukraine to win this war?" CNN's Kaitlan Collins pressed.

Trump evaded. "I don't think in terms of winning and losing," he replied, adding that he was focused on winding down the war. "I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people." He did not mention that the majority of the killing has been committed by Russia.

Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee and is close to President Joe Biden, said there were fears internationally of Trump's return.

"His performance last night just reinforced what so many of our allies and partners have told me concerns them over the past two years — that a return of Trump to the White House would be a return to the chaos," he said.

Some GOP elected officials who are skeptical of U.S. aid to Ukraine praised Trump's performance. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio called his Ukraine answer "real statesmanship." Miller argued that Trump had an "entire term with no new wars, and he's ready to do it again."
In New Hampshire, the audience of Republicans lapped up Trump's one-liners and slew of insults — to Collins (a "nasty person," he jeered, echoing his old attack on Hillary Clinton), to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, to E. Jean Carroll, the woman whom a jury this past week found Trump liable of sexually abusing and defaming. And the crowd expressed no dissent as he again tried to rewrite the history of Jan. 6, 2021, when his supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to overturn his election loss. "It was a beautiful day," Trump said.

If he becomes president again, he said, he would "most likely" pardon "a large portion" of his supporters who were convicted over their actions on Jan. 6. "They were there with love in their heart," he said of the crowd, which he beamed had been the "largest" of his career.

"You see what you're going to get, which is a presidency untethered to the truth and untethered to the constitutional order," said Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, the Republican Party's most prominent Trump critic remaining on Capitol Hill. "The idea that people who've been convicted of crimes are all going to be pardoned, or for the most part pardoned, is quite a departure from the principles of the Constitution and of our party."

Trump also embraced the possibility of defaulting in the debt ceiling standoff between Biden and congressional Republicans, an act that economists say could spell catastrophe for the global economy. "You might as well do it now because you'll do it later, because we have to save this country," Trump said. "Our country is dying."

Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, a Republican who is running a long-shot campaign for president in 2024, said Trump's potential return to the White House posed an "enormous" risk for the nation. "He has shown such a disrespect for our institutions of government that are critical to our democracy," Hutchinson said, adding that he had been particularly unnerved by the talk of defaulting.

Despite such warnings from old-guard Republicans, the cheers from the conservative crowd in New Hampshire were an audible reminder of Trump's sizable lead in GOP primary polls. Karl Rove, the architect of George W. Bush's two presidential victories, said in an interview that "for true believers and ardent supporters, it was a boffo performance" by Trump. But he said that other Republicans would now be forced to answer for "a big pile of noxious material on their doorsteps."

One of the most controversial policies of Trump's presidency was the forced separation of migrant parents from their children at the southern border, which Trump reversed himself on in June 2018 after a huge backlash.

But during the town hall Wednesday, Trump suggested he would revive it. "Well, when you have that policy, people don't come," he said.
"If a family hears they're going to be separated, they love their family, they don't come."

Casual observers might be inclined, as some did in 2016, to take Trump's most extreme statements, such as his casual embrace of allowing the nation to default, seriously but not literally.
Pressed by Collins, Trump would not say he was willing to accept the 2024 results.

Trump also denounced former Vice President Mike Pence for upholding the 2020 results and waved off the suggestion that Pence had been at risk on Jan. 6, even though the Secret Service tried to evacuate him from the Capitol.

"I don't think he was in any danger," Trump said.

Marc Short, who was with Pence that day as his chief of staff, called out Trump's double standard in defending violence by his supporters while claiming to broadly stand for law and order.

"Many of us called for the prosecution of BLM rioters when they destroyed private businesses," Short said, referring to Black Lives Matter supporters. "It's hard to see how there's a different threshold when rioters injure law enforcement, threaten public officials and loot the Capitol."

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The Club PUBlication  05/08/2023

5/8/2023

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​
Everything You Need to Know About the Debt Ceiling

Congress controls how much money the United States can borrow.
Here’s a look at why that is and what it means.


By Alan Rappeport Reporting from Washington
May 2, 2023

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U.S Rep. Dean Phillips

Washington is heading for another big fight over whether to raise or suspend the nation’s debt limit, which caps the amount of money the federal government can borrow to pay its bills. This year is shaping up to be the messiest fight in at least a decade. Republicans are demanding that an increase in the borrowing limit be accompanied by spending cuts and other cost savings. President Biden has said he will oppose any attempt to tie spending cuts to raising the debt ceiling, increasing the likelihood of a protracted standoff. The president is set to meet with Republican and Democratic leaders at the White House on May 9 to discuss a path forward. But it is still unclear how quickly lawmakers will act to raise the nation’s borrowing cap. Here is what you need to know about the debt limit and what happens if no deal can be reached:

What is the debt limit?
The debt limit is a cap on the total amount of money that the United States is authorized to borrow to fund the government and meet its financial obligations. Because the federal government runs budget deficits — meaning it spends more than it brings in through taxes and other revenue — it must borrow huge sums of money to pay its bills. Those obligations include funding for social safety net programs, interest on the national debt and salaries for members of the armed forces.  Approaching the debt ceiling often elicits calls by lawmakers to cut back on government spending. But lifting the debt limit does not actually authorize any new spending — in fact, it simply allows the United States to spend money on programs that have already been authorized by Congress.

When was the debt limit reached?
The United States officially hit its debt limit on Jan. 19, prompting the Treasury Department to use accounting maneuvers known as extraordinary measures to continue paying the government’s obligations and avoid a default. Those measures temporarily curb certain government investments so that the bills can continue to be paid. The ability to use those measures to delay a default could be exhausted by June. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen on Monday warned lawmakers that the United States could run out of cash by June 1 if the borrowing cap isn’t raised or suspended.

How much debt does the United States have?
The national debt crossed $31 trillion for the first time last year. The borrowing cap is set at $31.381 trillion.

Why does the United States have a debt limit?
According to the Constitution, Congress must authorize government borrowing. In the early 20th century, the debt limit was instituted so that the Treasury would not need to ask Congress for permission each time it had to issue debt to pay bills. During World War I, Congress passed the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 to give the Treasury more flexibility to issue debt and manage federal finances. The debt limit started to take its current shape in 1939, when Congress consolidated different limits that had been set on different types of bonds into a single borrowing cap. At the time, the limit was set to $45 billion. While the debt limit was created to make government run more smoothly, many policymakers believe that it has become more trouble than it’s worth. In 2021, Ms. Yellen said she supported abolishing the debt limit.

What happens if the debt limit is not raised or suspended?
If the government exhausts its extraordinary measures and runs out of cash, it would be unable to issue new debt. That means it would not have enough money to pay its bills, including interest and other payments it owes to bondholders, military salaries and benefits to retirees. No one knows exactly what would happen if the United States gets to that point, but the government could default on its debt if it is unable to make required payments to its bondholders. Economists and Wall Street analysts warn that such a scenario would be economically devastating, and could plunge the entire world into a financial crisis.

Will military salaries, Social Security benefits and bondholders be paid?
Various ideas have been raised to ensure that critical payments are not missed — particularly payments to the investors who hold U.S. debt. But none of these ideas have ever been tried, and it remains unclear whether the government could actually continue paying any of its bills if it can’t borrow more money. One idea that has been proposed is that the Treasury Department would prioritize certain payments to avoid defaulting on U.S. debt. In that case, the Treasury would first pay the bondholders who own U.S. Treasury debt, even if it delayed other financial obligations like government salaries or retirement benefits. So far, the Treasury seems to have ruled that out as an option. Ms. Yellen has said that such an approach would not avoid a debt “default” in the eyes of markets. ​“Treasury systems have all been built to pay all of our bills when they’re due and on time, and not to prioritize one form of spending over another,” Ms. Yellen told reporters earlier this year.


Alan Rappeport is an economic policy reporter, based in Washington. He covers the Treasury Department and writes about taxes, trade and fiscal matters. He previously worked for The Financial Times and The Economist. @arappeport



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The Club PUBlication  05/01/2023

5/1/2023

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​Quarrel over baby leads to five shot dead in Texas
Slaying is another act of retaliatory gun violence.
By JUSTINE McDANIEL, ANDREA SALCEDO and MARK BERMAN • Washington Post

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At left a loved one was consoledas he arrived at the scene where five people were shot and killed Froday night.

A man killed five people, including an 8-year-old boy, with an AR-15-style weapon Friday night in an angry response to his neighbors' request that he stop shooting in his yard while their baby was trying to sleep, Texas authorities said Saturday.

Instead of heeding the request, the man allegedly took the gun, went to the neighbor's house, and killed half the people inside. He fled, sparking an overnight search around Cleveland, Texas, continuing Saturday night.

The mass killing of a family in their home was the latest act of retaliatory gun violence to traumatize an American community. The shooting renewed calls from gun control advocates for a federal ban on assault weapons, which have a unique ability to destroy the human body. It was at least the seventh incident this month in which an armed American shot people. Law enforcement officers went to the home after receiving a report of "harassment" around 11:30 p.m., Capers told reporters. They found the four adults dead and took the 8-year-old to the hospital.

The three surviving children also were taken to a hospital, Capers said, but they were not injured.

The victims had moved to Cleveland from Harris County. Cleveland is about 40 miles northeast of downtown Houston.

Capers said they lived in a "regular country neighborhood" known as Trails End; all victims were from Honduras.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had not publicly responded to the news of the shooting by late Saturday afternoon.

Balderas, who has lived in the neighborhood for three years, described the family as happy. They moved in about two years ago, she said. She said the children's father, an electrician, helped her around the house, and the family aided Balderas when her father died.

"They were a very happy family. Christian. They were kind," she said. "They would never say no to us. They were always helping us. ... They were always there."

Balderas said she stayed up until 5 a.m. in fear because the gunman had not been apprehended. "It hurts a lot because I did love the family a lot. I am now afraid to be at home."

This was the year's 19th U.S. shooting to kill at least four people, not including the shooter, according to the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks U.S. shootings.

The killings drew calls from gun control advocates for a federal ban on AR-15-style weapons, whose sale is banned in a few states. Washington became the latest state on Wednesday when its Democratic governor signed a ban.

President Joe Biden urged Congress to pass a federal assault weapons ban after a shooter killed six people with an AR-15-style weapon at a Nashville school last month.

Republicans in Congress have dismissed the legislation.

After the shooting, Kris Brown, president of the Brady gun control organization, said AR-15s "have no place in civilian life."

"These weapons of war were designed to kill as many people as quickly as possible, which is why they are the weapon of choice for America's mass shooters — and why Congress must ban them immediately," Brown said.

Texas has some of the least restrictive gun laws in the country, according to the nonprofit Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, which supports stricter regular, everyday interactions.
The family in Texas had lived in their neighborhood for about two years.

Their neighbor, Francisco Oropeza, 38, was charged with five counts of murder, San Jacinto County Sheriff Greg Capers said. Authorities said they believed he was about 2 miles from the area Saturday afternoon and were working to apprehend him, he said.

Ten people, all family members, were in the home during the shooting. Five survived, including three children.

The Sheriff's Office said that three women and a man were killed, along with an 8-year-old boy who died later at a hospital.

Two of the women killed were found lying on top of the surviving young children in a bedroom, "trying to protect them," Capers said by phone from the scene.

All five victims were shot in the head, Capers said. "It's horrific. No one should ever have to look at this scene, the blood, the trauma that went on in that house."

Authorities initially searched for Oropeza in a wooded area near the neighborhood.

Later, the FBI said the suspect could be within a 10- to 20-square-mile radius.

Oropeza frequently shot his AR-15-style weapon in his yard, Capers said and was doing so Friday when his neighbors asked him to stop about 11 p.m. He allegedly became angry after they said their baby was trying to sleep and, after the conversation, went to their home. Authorities say video footage of Oropeza walking to the victims' front door before entering.

"The neighbors walked over and said ... 'Hey man, can you not do that? We've got an infant in here trying to sleep," Capers said. "They went back in their house, and then we have a video of him walking up their driveway with his AR-15."

Vianey Balderas, who lives across the street, said she first heard gunshots that night when a few people were outside.

About 20 minutes later, Balderas heard about five more gunshots, then another 10. "When I heard those gunshots, I didn't think anything of it because, in this neighborhood, everyone has guns. So every weekend you hear gunshots," she said in an interview in Spanish.

"People shoot in their backyards after they drink alcohol, men take out guns at house parties and shoot the ground."

Minutes later, Balderas, 27, heard a truck pulling away. She then saw one of her neighbors — the children's father, she said — outside, begging someone to call an ambulance.

She said the family and Oropeza had quarreled before.

Arms Laws
Texas gun rights advocates, meanwhile, said the shooting did not highlight any problems with the state's firearm-friendly policies.

"It's a tragedy, but we need to get away from blaming guns, which only answers the question of how and start asking the question why these shootings take place, why people feel the need to settle differences with violence and murder," said C.J. Grisham, legal and policy director for Texas Gun Rights, a Second Amendment advocacy group.

Grisham said the gunman's AR-15-style gun was "meaningless" because "he could have killed those people just as easily with a handgun."

The killings add to a growing list of recent shootings by armed Americans who have fired in response to what could have been regular, everyday interactions.

This month, an Illinois man was fatally shot by a neighbor angry about his leaf blower; a 20-year-old woman was shot and killed by a New York homeowner after accidentally pulling into the wrong driveway; a neighbor in North Carolina shot a 6-year-old and her father after the child's basketball rolled into his yard.
​

​


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