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The Club PUBlication  05/31/2021

5/31/2021

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EAT HAPPY

Story by ANAHAD O’CONNOR

Illustration by ROCIO EGIO New York Times

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As people across the globe grappled with higher levels of stress, depression and anxiety this past year, many turned to their favorite comfort foods: ice cream, pastries, pizza. But studies in recent years suggest that the sugar-laden and high-fat foods we often crave when we are stressed or depressed are the least likely to benefit our mental health. Instead, whole foods such as vegetables, fruit, fish, eggs, nuts and seeds, beans and legumes and fermented foods like yogurt may be a better bet.

The findings stem from an emerging field of research known as nutritional psychiatry, which looks at the relationship between diet and mental wellness. Historically, nutrition research has focused largely on how the foods we eat affect our physical health, rather than our mental health.

But over the years, a growing body of research has provided intriguing hints about the ways in which foods may affect our moods. A healthy diet promotes a healthy gut, which communicates with the brain through what is known as the gut-brain axis. Microbes in the gut produce neurotransmitters like serotonin and dopamine, which regulate our mood and emotions, and the gut microbiome has been implicated in mental health outcomes. “A growing body of literature shows that the gut microbiome plays a shaping role in a variety of psychiatric disorders, including major depressive disorder,” a team of scientists wrote in the Harvard Review of Psychiatry last year.

Large population studies, too, have found that people who eat a lot of nutrient-dense foods report less depression and greater levels of happiness and mental well-being. One such study, from 2016, that followed 12,400 people for about seven years found that those who increased their consumption of fruits and vegetables during the study period rated themselves substantially higher on questionnaires about their general levels of happiness and life satisfaction.

Large observational studies, however, can show only correlations, not causation, which raises the question: Do anxiety and depression drive people to choose unhealthy foods, or vice versa? Are people who are happy and optimistic more motivated to consume nutritious foods? Or does a healthy diet directly brighten their moods?

The first major trial to shed light on the food-mood connection was published in 2017. A team of researchers recruited 67 people who were clinically depressed and split them into groups. One group met with a dietitian who taught them to follow a traditional Mediterranean-style diet. The other, serving as the control, met regularly with a research assistant who provided social support but no dietary advice.

At the start of the study, both groups consumed a lot of sugary foods, processed meats and salty snacks, and very little fiber, lean proteins or fruits and vegetables. But the diet group made big changes. They replaced candy, fast food and pastries with whole foods such as nuts, beans, fruits and legumes. They switched from white bread to whole grain and sourdough bread. They gave up sugary cereals and ate muesli and oatmeal. Instead of pizza, they ate vegetable stir-fries. And they replaced highly processed meats like ham, sausages and bacon with seafood and small amounts of lean red meats.

Ditch the ice cream and grab yogurt. Research suggests that fermented and whole foods may boost mental health.

Importantly, both groups were counseled to continue taking any antidepressants or other medications they were prescribed. The goal of the study was not to see if a healthier diet could replace medication, but whether it could provide additional benefits like exercise, good sleep and other lifestyle behaviors.

After 12 weeks, average depression scores improved in both groups, which might be expected for anyone entering a clinical trial that provided additional support, regardless of which group you were in. But depression scores improved to a far greater extent in the group that followed the healthy diet: roughly a third of those people were no longer classified as depressed, compared to 8% of people in the control group.

The results were striking for a number of reasons. The diet benefited mental health even though the participants did not lose any weight. People also saved money by eating the more nutritious foods, demonstrating that a healthy diet can be economical. Before the study, the participants spent on average $138 per week on food. Those who switched to the healthy diet lowered their food costs to $112 per week. The recommended foods, such as canned beans, tuna and produce, were relatively inexpensive and available at most grocery stores said Felice Jacka, the lead author of the study.

“Mental health is complex,” said Jacka, the director of the Food & Mood Centre at Deakin University in Australia and the president of the International Society for Nutritional Psychiatry Research. “Eating a salad is not going to cure depression. But there’s a lot you can do to lift your mood and improve your mental health, and it can be as simple as increasing your intake of plants and healthy foods.”

A number of randomized trials have reported similar findings. Still, not every study has had positive results. A large trial published in JAMA in 2019, for example, found that a Mediterranean diet reduced anxiety but did not prevent depression in a group of people at high risk. Taking supplements such as vitamin D, selenium and omega-3 fatty acids had no impact on either depression or anxiety.

Most psychiatric professional groups have not adopted dietary recommendations, in part because experts say that more research is needed before they can prescribe a specific diet for mental health. But public health experts in countries around the world have started encouraging people to adopt lifestyle behaviors like exercise, sound sleep, a heart-healthy diet and avoiding smoking that may reduce inflammation and have benefits for the brain.

“There’s a lot you can do to lift your mood ... and it can be as simple as increasing your intake of plants and health foods.”

                                 Felice Jacka, Food & Mood Centre, Deakin University, Australia
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The Club PUBlication  05/24/2021

5/24/2021

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MARKET COMMENTARY
 
MAY 18, 2021
Bitcoin FAQs
By Schwab Center for Financial Research
 
Thank you Bob Warrans for your contribution

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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been getting a lot of attention lately. Investors hear news about overnight Bitcoin millionaires who lose their fortunes just as quickly. One Bitcoin ranged in price from $1,000 in early 2017 to a high of over $60,000 in March 2021, with intense volatility in between. Understandably, investors have questions—here are answers to some of the most common.

What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a virtual, digital, or “crypto” currency—so called because of the cryptography, or unchangeable coding techniques, involved in the blockchain code on which they exist. The intent of Bitcoin is to allow online payments to be made directly from one party to another through a worldwide payment system, without the need for a central third-party intermediary like a bank. Bitcoin is not issued by any central bank or government and is not legal tender. Like physical gold, Bitcoin’s value stems from a combination of scarcity and the perception that it is a store of value, an anonymous means of payment, or a hedge against inflation.

What's the relationship between Bitcoin and blockchain?
Blockchain, the underlying technology that supports cryptocurrencies, is an open-source, public record-keeping system operating on a decentralized computer network that records transactions between parties in a verifiable and permanent way. Blockchain provides accountability, as the records are intended to be immutable, which presents potential applications for many businesses. While blockchain has often been associated with cryptocurrencies, it has many potential uses beyond payments, including smart contracts, supply chain management, and financial services. Note that ownership of Bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies is not an investment in blockchain, the technology, or its current or future uses.

What is cryptocurrency, and how is it valued?
Fiat currencies like U.S. dollars and euros are forms of money issued by governments to serve as legal tender. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, on the other hand, are “non-fiat,” non-governmental forms of “digital cash” to be used for electronic payments. The idea of “digital cash” isn’t new; it started with credit cards, PayPal, Venmo and other services’ need for easy, traceable electronic payments. But those payments are tied to fiat currencies managed by central banks, whereas cryptocurrencies are managed by technology, specifically cryptology. Proponents believe the value of a cryptocurrency is based on the quality of the cryptology, the number of cryptocurrency units created, and the technology that limits the creation of additional units. Like any traded item—think baseball cards—the value depends on supply and demand; the less units available, the higher the price buyers are willing to pay.

Why has Bitcoin become so popular?
Like many new technologies or products, Bitcoin attracted adherents interested in innovation and the perceived absence of governmental control. Traders saw it as an alternative to traditional investments such as stocks, bonds, and cash, and trading momentum led to a rising, if highly volatile, price. All of this attracted media attention, which drove mainstream awareness and ultimately, increasing acceptance. Most recently, companies including PayPal have announced that they’ll support or accept Bitcoin as a form of payment1.

Who oversees Bitcoin?
Bitcoin was created based on a paper written in 2008 by a “founder” who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, but no person or agency currently regulates it to ensure that it maintains value and liquidity and works as a means of payment. It’s governed by consensus of a private digital community according to guidelines based on the community, cryptology, and a network of computers. It is promoted by the Bitcoin Foundation, but the foundation does not control or manage Bitcoin’s trading or value. The number of Bitcoins in circulation is limited by and managed by computer code and traded through one of several digital, decentralized exchanges. 

Is Bitcoin the only cryptocurrency?
No. Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency and it is the best known, most widely held, and—with about 60% of the total cryptocurrency market cap2—the most valuable. However, as of March 2021 there were thousands of digital currencies in the marketplace, of which over 700 have a market capitalization exceeding $20 million. Some of the more popular cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Tether, Ethereum, Litecoin, and XRP
. 

Will Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies become the new global currency?We don’t think so, but time will tell. To be viable, a currency usually requires three characteristics: 
  • It can be used as an inexpensive, reliable medium of exchange;
  • It can be a unit of account;
  • It can be a store of value and legal tender honored as a means of payment. 
As long as Bitcoin is subject to high volatility and hefty transaction fees, it likely will have only limited use as a medium of exchange, a unit of account or a store of value. Another barrier to broader public acceptance as a true currency is that, as cryptocurrencies become more widespread, the risk of regulation will probably rise—eliminating part of their appeal.
 

Should I invest in cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are speculative investments. Bitcoin doesn’t fit within traditional asset allocation models, as it is neither a traditional commodity, such as gold, nor a traditional currency. Bitcoin’s dramatic volatility is driven primarily by supply and demand, not inherent value. Bitcoin doesn’t have earnings or revenues. It doesn’t have a price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-sales ratio, or book value. Traditional value metrics don’t apply, so there are no methods for assessing its value that we endorse or find persuasive beyond the trading value. 

Nevertheless, in the 13 years since the underpinnings of Bitcoin were first described3, the cryptocurrency market has developed beyond an initial experimental phase and continued to mature as a new, unique, and sizable asset class. Several institutional investors and corporations have begun to invest in Bitcoin, and some traditional capital-market participants have introduced crypto-market infrastructure services to make it more accessible. Some investors believe that if the lack of correlation with other asset classes continues, cryptocurrencies could add diversification to a portfolio. These showings of validation and confidence may be self-reinforcing, despite significant outstanding uncertainties around legal, regulatory, and compliance considerations. 

Whether or not you should invest in cryptocurrencies depends on your goals and preferences as an investor. We suggest that clients approach it as a speculative investment and consider the high volatility and risks involved. For those who already have a diversified portfolio and a long-term investment plan, we see cryptocurrencies as being used primarily for trading purposes outside the traditional portfolio. 

Can I get exposure to cryptocurrencies at Schwab? 
Yes. We enable several ways to access cryptocurrency markets:
  • “Over-the-counter” cryptocurrency coin trusts, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trusts (GBTC and BCHG), Grayscale Ethereum Trusts (ETHE and ETCG), and Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTCN) offer exposure to cryptocurrencies, although these can involve high expenses and other risks.
  • Clients with a futures account can also trade Bitcoin futures (BTC).
Many aspects of the cryptocurrency market are still immature, in ways that may pose risks for our clients and for Schwab—and US regulators have not yet clarified their approach. We believe that future SEC approval of a cryptocurrency ETF will be a key step in the market’s development, and an attractive, low-cost option for clients interested in this space. But the SEC has been cautious, prudently seeking to validate that this developing market has appropriate safeguards, for example, against market manipulation. When there is more regulatory guidance, you can expect Schwab to have more investment options for clients, including spot crypto trading and custody. And of course if we do bring new solutions to market, like always, you can expect them to be a great value, designed to support client need and surrounded by the advice and education our clients have come to expect from us and deserve.

How are cryptocurrencies taxed?
The IRS treats Bitcoin as property, not currency. Cryptocurrency transactions are taxable by the IRS whenever a taxable event occurs, such as selling Bitcoin for a fiat currency or trading for another asset. Investors are responsible for tracking cost basis, gains, and other reporting. For help, refer to IRS Notice 2014-21, or consult with a tax advisor.

What are some risks of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? 
  • Financial loss. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices historically have been highly volatile, and fluctuations could result in significant losses.
  • Future regulation. Cryptocurrency issuance and trading is currently not well regulated, and additional oversight and regulation in the future is likely. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may be poised to curtail the use of cryptocurrencies. In her confirmation hearing on Jan. 19, Yellen noted her concern over cryptocurrencies being used “for illicit financing.” Both the Trump and Biden administrations have proposed regulations.
  • Fraud and cybercrime. These have already occurred. Given concerns above, cryptocurrencies could come under scrutiny from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), for noncompliance with the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and anti-money laundering requirements. Bitcoin exchanges have also been subject to computer outages caused by excessive demand, and because the ledgers are held on the internet, a large-scale cyberattack could limit access in an emergency—something less likely to happen with cash or gold.
  • Theft or loss. A login ID and password is usually required to access a cryptocurrency exchange. If this is lost, hacked, or stolen, access could be denied or lost. While Bitcoins can be stored in physical wallets, so they can be spent without a computer, this creates the same risks inherent in all cash currencies: They could be lost, stolen, or destroyed by accident.

Bottom lineSchwab continues to monitor cryptocurrencies as regulations and technology evolve. While some traders may make money on the change in price of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, we suggest that most investors treat them as a speculative asset class primarily for trading with money outside a traditional long-term portfolio.


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The Club PUBlication  05/17/2021

5/17/2021

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INVESTING CRYPTOMANIA’S UNCERTAINTIES

By BEN MARKS and BRETT ANGEL

The Star Tribune

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​Billionaire entrepreneur and Tesla founder Elon Musk went out of his way to mention his favorite cryptocurrency multiple times when hosting Saturday Night Live recently. This publicity stunt perfectly captured the current debate: Are cryptocurrencies worthy of prime-time attention? Or destined to be just another punchline?

Nobody knows for sure, despite social media threads trying to convince you otherwise. Your neighbor might already be a cryptomaniac, but as for its investment merits, there’s far more about digital currencies that remain uncertain.

Here are some of the biggest questions:

Does the world need crypto? Cryptocurrencies provide a digital alternative to traditional government-backed money (fiat currencies) such as the U.S. dollar. The fact that dollars are backed by the U.S. government is what makes them safe and reliable, but it also means each dollar’s relative value is affected by policies of central banks such as the Federal Reserve.
Crypto believers argue there is global demand for a decentralized currency whose value cannot be manipulated by central banks or government actors. Many digital currencies, including Bit-coin, also have a purposely limited supply and may be more resistant to inflation.
What kind of investment is it? The name would imply these are currencies, but most trade with exceptionally high volatility more akin to penny stocks. The majority have limited volume and require specialized accounts to access. It has been suggested the proper way to view cryptocurrencies is as “digital gold.” That is, an asset uncorrelated to stocks and bonds that will hold its value in times of economic distress.
The right way to categorize crypto remains up for discussion, but in three weeks of COVIDinduced economic distress in February and March 2020, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin lost 60% of its value. Gold, over the same period, was flat.
How will they be taxed and regulated? The short answer is crypto-related gains could be subject to less-favorable tax treatment than traditional investments. If a person owns several cryptocurrencies and uses more than one to purchase goods and services, you can see how “everyday transactions” could result in frequent short-term gains (or losses) upon buying and selling.
Central banks and federal governments, meanwhile, could decide to regulate digital currencies in a way that significantly restricts their appeal. Whether it’s to increase tax revenue or maintain authority, such a development could severely hurt crypto’s popularity and price.
Which ones will survive? If you are among the slim minority who can name five of the more than 6,700 publicly traded cryptocurrencies them, that leaves 99.9% you have never heard of. That matters because if there’s one thing we know about cryptocurrencies, it’s that there will be far fewer winners than losers.
Think back to the tech bubble of the late 1990s. Hundreds of startup companies raced to outrageous stock prices based on the premise the internet would change the world. Guess what? The internet did change the world, and most of those companies still either disappeared or lost most of their value anyway.
In other words, being right about a new technology or trend does not guarantee investment success.
Ben Marks is chief investment officer at Marks Group Wealth
Management in Minnetonka. He can be reached at [email protected]. Brett Angel is a senior wealth adviser at the firm.
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The Club PUBlication  05/10/2021

5/10/2021

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​Melting glaciers expose frozen World War I relics

Punishing weather tested the soldiers fighting in Northern Italy and preserved their barracks.


By JACEY FORTIN New York Times

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Associated Press In the “war to end all wars,” these Prussian soldiers were given a patriotic send-off as they left for Berlin and the front.

​As glaciers melt and shrink in the Alps of Northern Italy, long-frozen relics of World War I have been emerging from the ice.


They include cups, cans, letters, weapons and bones with the marrow sucked dry. They were found in cave barracks not far from the frigid summit of Mount Scorluzzo, which reaches more than 10,000 feet above sea level in Northern Italy.  

The Austro-Hungarian soldiers who occupied those barracks were fighting Italian troops in what became known as the White War. There in the Alps — removed from the more famous Western Front, a site of bloody trench warfare between Germany and France — troops climbed to precarious heights in the stinging cold to carve fortifications into the rock and snow.


The weather that tested the troops on Mount Scorluzzo ultimately preserved their barracks, freezing the entrance shut after soldiers abandoned their post at the end of the war in 1918. The structure was essentially impenetrable for decades — until 2017, when enough of the ice and snow had melted, allowing researchers to enter.

The barracks have now been excavated, revealing the items that were left behind and offering a fuller glimpse of the people who lived in the cramped space more than a century ago.

The barracks, in Stelvio National Park, are “sort of a time machine,” said Stefano Morosini, a historian who coordinates heritage projects for the park and professor at the University of Bergamo.

“We are interested not only in a historical way, but also in a scientific way,” he added. “How was the pollution? How were the epidemiological conditions in the barracks? How did the soldiers sleep, and how did they suffer? What did they eat?”

Many relics will eventually be shown at a museum that is expected to open next year in the town of Bormio, Morosini said. Another museum dedicated to the White War already exists in the nearby town of Temù, and staff members there are now working to restore the relics found in the barracks.

Luca Pedrotti, a scientific coordinator at the park, said the relics held lessons in environmental science as well as history. Extremely cold weather killed soldiers in Northern Italy more than a century ago; today, warmer conditions present a different kind of threat.

Pedrotti, who lived in the park as a child, said he has watched the glaciers recede. He has seen changes in the flora and observed cold-loving animals move up to the mountaintops, clinging to shrinking habitable zones.

“I think it is important that we use the park as a study area to raise awareness about climate change,” he said.

In the White War, most of the soldiers who died were believed to have been killed not by the fighting but by the environment. Their remote outposts were hard to fortify with food and supplies, and the wind-swept peaks were prone to avalanches.

“Here, the men spend their days wrapped in shaggy furs, their faces smeared with grease as a protection from the stinging blasts, and their nights in holes burrowed in the snow,” E. Alexander Powell, a newspaper correspondent, wrote in “Italy at War,” a book published in 1918.

“On no front, not on the sun-scorched plains of Mesopotamia, nor in the frozen Masurian marshes, nor in the blood-soaked mud of Flanders, does the fighting man lead so arduous an existence as up here on the roof of the world.”

Now, Italian scientists and researchers are working to reconstruct the daily lives of the soldiers who fought at the frozen front.

Already, it is clear that they battled starvation — they were hungry enough to eat bone marrow and fruit pits — and that they did their best to fight the cold with layers of fabric and fur. They also wrote letters to their loved ones, telling of spectacular views and horrible conditions.

“We are not so interested in the guns, because guns are a way to kill,” Morosini said. “We are interested in the relics that show the extreme environmental conditions, and the extreme life conditions, of these soldiers.”

No bodies were found in the barracks, though frozen corpses of people who fought in the White War have appeared nearby. Researchers did, however, find at least one sign of life, said Alessandro Nardo, park director.

“When I first came here to manage Stelvio National Park, in the end of 2018, one of the things that attracted my curiosity was a small pot on a desk with a green wild geranium,” he said. “I asked my colleague what was it, and he said it had germinated from the seeds found in the mattresses of the barrack of Scorluzzo.”

​
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The Club PUBlication  05/03/2021

5/3/2021

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Arizona’s latest ‘recount’ being run by secretive partisan group

Two official recounts had confirmed Biden’s win.
​

By ROSALIND S. HELDERMAN and JOSH DAWSEY Washington Post

WASHINGTON – More than five months after the 2020 presidential election, and after numerous attempts to overturn the results, former President Donald Trump has seized on a new avenue to try to call the outcome into question: a hand recount of 2.1 million ballots cast in Arizona’s largest county.
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Several advisers said the former president has become fixated on the unorthodox process underway in Phoenix, where the GOP-led state Senate took ballots and voting equipment from Maricopa County and turned them over to Cyber Ninjas, a private contractor whose chief executive has echoed claims that the election was fraudulent .
Ensconced at his private club in Florida, Trump quizzes aides for updates about the process multiple times a day, advisers said .

“He talks about it constantly,” said one person who recently visited Mar-a-Lago , speaking on condition of anonymity .

Trump’s embrace of the Arizona effort — which he and his allies claim will prove that the election was stolen — has come amid mounting anxiety among election officials that similar partisan vote counts could become the norm.

“I’m very concerned this has ramifications for every state in the country,” Kim Wyman, a Republican who serves as secretary of state in Washington state, said in an interview. “This is politicizing an administrative process with no real structure or laws or rules in place to guide how it goes.”

In Georgia, Gabriel Sterling, a GOP election official who has clashed with Trump, tweeted that the Arizona recount is “another step in undermining confidence in elections. This process is neither transparent nor, likely, legal.”

The endeavor in Phoenix has been pilloried for abandoning state guidelines intended to make recounts fair, and for allowing the rules to be set by a private contractor who promoted claims that the election was stolen.

Cyber Ninjas has fought efforts in court to disclose its procedures and placed tight restrictions on media and independent election experts who wish to observe the recount. Longtime election officials who have gotten a glimpse through a livestream have expressed shock at how little the contractors are disclosing about basic processes — for instance, how workers are determining voters’ intent as they review ballots.

And the funding and organization for the effort are enmeshed with a network of figures who have promoted Trump’s false claims that the election was rigged.
Maricopa County officials and election experts have watched the process unfold with dismay.

The five-member Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, which includes four elected Republicans, agreed to conduct two new election audits that concluded in February, which confirmed the accuracy of the November count showing that Biden won the county by more than 2 points.

Jack Sellers, the Republican chairman of the board, said in an interview that he is concerned that the private contractors seem to lack basic knowledge of Arizona election procedures. “It’s very disconcerting,” he said, adding that he is convinced that Maricopa had a “fair, efficient and honest” election.

Election officials nationwide have expressed astonishment at the murkiness of procedures employed by Cyber Ninjas, a Florida-based firm .

Cyber Ninjas sought to keep documents describing its procedures under seal, arguing that they are “trade secrets.” Media access to the count has been extremely proscribed — and at times barred completely — even as the pro-Trump One America News network (OAN) was given rights to livestream the event.

The livestream shows dozens of people wearing different-color shirts handling and examining ballots, but it is not clear who was hired to serve as ballot counters or what kind of training they received.

On Thursday, several national voting rights advocates sent a letter to the Justice Department, expressing concern that the ballots are “in imminent danger of being stolen, defaced, or irretrievably damaged” and asking that federal monitors be sent to Phoenix “as soon as practicable.”

“The idea that there are whole tables not being watched just blows me away,” said Scott McDonell, the county clerk in Dane County, Wis.

The effort to examine ballots with ultraviolet, or UV, lights has spurred particular enthusiasm among Trump supporters — and particular worries among election officials.
​

The purpose of the lights remains murky. OAN reported Monday that the lights were being used “to search for ballot watermarks and weed out phony ballots.” That prompted Maricopa County to release a fact sheet noting that the county’s ballots do not bear watermarks.
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