Harv's Corner

Terry Savage is a nationally recognized expert in personal finance, known for her straightforward and common-sense approach to money matters. With a background as a stockbroker and a pioneering female trader on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Savage brings decades of experience in the financial markets to her work.

IDENTITY THEFT AND WHAT TO DO!

​It makes sense to assume your identity has — or will be — stolen! Ever since the Equifax breach two years ago, the “dark web” has the names, birth dates, addresses, and Social Security numbers of millions of Americans! Now, that information is being used to scam states out of unemployment benefits. And you may not even know that your identity has been used until you receive a 1099 tax form from the Government in January demanding taxes on money that was supposedly distributed to you from state unemployment offices or even the SBA’s PPP program! So if you never applied for unemployment but suddenly receive a debit card, or a letter from your state unemployment department, here’s what you should do.

SPECIAL UPDATE FROM IRS 02/21/21
The IRS has put up a short, but helpful page, telling taxpayers what to do if they are victims of Identity Theft fraud related to unemployment benefits. As I have previously written, although they advise asking your state for a corrected 1099G, that is unlikely to happen given all the confusion. Instead, you should file “an accurate federal tax return reporting only income received.” That is, do NOT report income from a fraudulent 1099G that you received. Here is a link to the new IRS page on Identity Theft and Unemployment Benefits.

SPECIAL NOTE TO ILLINOIS RESIDENTS RE UNEMPLOYMENT FRAUD 01/27/2021
The very messed up IDES website has made just a promise and posted a link! The promise is that if you report fraud on their site you will not receive a 1099G form, reporting those fraudulent earnings for tax purposes. It’s hard to believe that IDES will be that organized! But if you even suspect unemployment fraud in Illinois, here is the new link to report it online at IDES:
https://www2.illinois.gov/ides/Pages/Report-Identity-Theft.aspx

​ BE SURE TO TAKE A SCREEN SHOT OF YOUR FRAUD FORM BEFORE SUBMITTING! (Just push the “prnt scrn” button on your keyboard, and then paste it into an email to yourself!) If you DO receive a 1099G from any state for unemployment benefits that you did not receive, you must contact the state to re-issue the 1099 in a corrected form (Good luck with that!) And don’t ignore that 1099G on your Federal tax return, because the state will share that info with the IRS. Instead the IRS suggests putting a note — even on electronic forms — alerting the IRS to the fraud. No idea how that will be resolved, but I will update this post when more news is available!

Get Your Credit Report
Below are links to contact each of the three credit bureaus. The first step is to FREEZE YOUR CREDIT. There should be NO COST to freeze your account and to get your credit report online, immediately. Keep your secure PIN so that you can easily lift the freeze if you want to allow a company to check your credit, perhaps in a job search, insurance purchase, or mortgage refinancing. Here are the direct links to the CREDIT FREEZE pages at each of the three bureaus:

Here is the link to the freeze Page on Transunion’s site: https://www.transunion.com/credit-freeze

​Here’s the link at Experian: https://www.experian.com/freeze/center.html

And here’s the link at Equifax: https://www.equifax.com/personal/credit-report-services/credit-freeze/

You can get a free copy of your report from each of the three bureaus by going to AnnualCreditReport.com. Or call the numbers below: TransUnion 1-800-916-8800 www.Transunion.com
Equifax 1-800-685-1111 www.Equifax.com
Experian 1-888-397-3742 www.Experian.com

The whole idea of freezing your credit report is so that no one can use your identity to open NEW ACCOUNTS in your name. But you still must be vigilant about your existing bank and card accounts to make sure no one is using them for fraudulent purposes.

READ Your Credit Report!
You are looking for “inquiries” into your credit. Many people have reported a “soft inquiry” from a state unemployment bureau. Typically they then receive one of those fraudulent debit cards. Make sure you do NOT ACTIVATE any debit card. BUT, you may also see an inquiry from a bank or credit card company that you do not recognize. If you see a bank inquiry, contact that bank to make sure someone did not open an account in your name. Bank accounts do NOT appear on your credit report, but an inquiry will be a tip-off that you are a victim of identity theft. AND, if you see an inquiry from the SBA (Small Business Administration) contact them immediately. I have heard from several people that small business loans were taken out in their name — and they had no idea! Contact the SBA inspector’s office at (800) 767-0385.

Contact the FBI
The FBI has an active, nationwide investigation into Unemployment-related Identity Theft. In addition to trying to report fraud to the unemployment office and banks issuing benefits cards, they ask you to report directly to the FBI — and promise that your tip, whether by phone or online — will be read by TWO agents.

1-800-CALL FBI

Tips.FBI.gov Report Suspected Fraud to the Unemployment Department
You may not get through by telephone, search for the word FRAUD on your state unemployment website. Report your suspicions online immediately. And keep proof that you did! Directions below.

Report Suspected Identity theft to Social Security and the Federal Trade Commission You can contact the Social Security Office of the Inspector General’s fraud hotline at 1-800-269-0271 or submit a report online at https://oig.ssa.gov/. Since the IRS checks with Social Security regarding income attributed to your number, you want them to know your identity might have been stolen. That way, if you get a 1099 for income from unemployment, you will have one more level of proof that it wasn’t yours! (By the way, at www.Socialsecurity.gov, you can check your own personal account safely and securely online, using the “My Social Security” tool. Here is a link to that page. Checking your own benefits history does more than let you know what your monthly check is likely to be at retirement. It allows you to make sure your employer is contributing appropriately AND make sure that no one else is using your SS number in a fraudulent way.) Surprisingly, the Federal Trade Commission is the nation’s consumer protection agency. You can call them at 1-877-IDTHEFT (1-877-438-4338); (TTY 1-866-653-4261); or call 1-800-908-4490. Also, you should file an online complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) at www.ic3.gov.

Keep Track of Your Attempts to Report Fraud
You might need to prove you tried to report any attempts at fraud. Here’s how to do that: Every time you file an online fraud complaint, take a screen shot of the filing page. (You can do that by pushing the button at the top of your keyboard marked “Prt Scr”. ) Then send yourself an email and “paste” the “screen shot” in the body of the email. You do that by clicking in the body of the email and if you don’t see the word “paste” come up, just press CONTROL +V at the same time, and the picture of the screen shot will appear in the body of the email! Save those emails that you send to yourself in a special folder. That will let the IRS know you tried to report fraud when it happened. And that will be useful if you receive a 1099 form next January asking you to pay taxes on the “unemployment benefits” your allegedly received – but, of course, didn’t!

Keep a Close watch on your Credit and Bank Accounts
Freezing your credit denies fraudsters the opportunity to open NEW credit in your name. But you must still check your accounts — bank and credit — on a regular basis online for unauthorized activities. Do this at least once a week. Change your password if you suspect identity theft might have occurred. Make sure you do your online checking from a SECURE WI-FI connection — not at a library or restaurant! Report any unexpected bank deposits, as they may be a prelude money being wired OUT of your account. And if you are offered “two-factor” identification (requiring confirmation by text or email of significant transactions) take a moment to set that up. Your goal is to BE AWARE, BE CURRENT, BUILD A FORTRESS AROUND YOUR CREDIT — and take action immediately if you think something is wrong.
Better safe than Sorry. That’s a Savage Truth!

Harv's Corner

Close to 1 trillion dollars will be cut out of Medicaid leaving millions of folks who depend on that support to keep them healthy/alive.  You probably can guess what my opinion of this cut  is.  
What do YOU think?

​GOP plan cuts billions from Medicaid
Democrats say millions will lose coverage, hospitals will shutter, premiums will rise.
By LISA MASCARO The Associated Press

There is no large group of malingers on Medicaid. Onerous work requirements for day laborers will put deserving people in horrible pain. Disgraceful.

WASHINGTON - House Republicans have unveiled the cost-saving centerpiece of President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill," at least $880 billion in
cuts largely to Medicaid to help cover the cost of $4.5 trillion in tax breaks.

Tallying hundreds of pages, the legislation revealed late Sunday is touching off the biggest political fight over health care since Republicans tried but failed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, during Trump's first term in 2017.

While Republicans insist they are simply rooting out "waste, fraud and abuse" to generate savings with new work and eligibility requirements, Democrats warn that millions of Americans will lose coverage. A preliminary estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the proposals would reduce the number of people with health care by 8.6 million over the decade.

"Savings like these allow us to use this bill to renew the Trump tax cuts and keep Republicans' promise to hardworking middle-class families," said Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky, the GOP chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, which handles health care spending.

But Democrats said the cuts are "shameful" and essentially amount to another attempt to repeal Obamacare.

"In no uncertain terms, millions of Americans will lose their health care coverage," said Rep. Frank Pallone of New Jersey, the top Democrat on the panel. He said "hospitals will close, seniors will not be able to access the care they need, and premiums will rise for millions of people if this bill passes."

As Republicans race toward House Speaker Mike Johnson's Memorial Day deadline to pass Trump's big bill of tax breaks and spending cuts, they are preparing to flood the zone with round-the-clock public hearings this week on various sections before they are stitched together in what will become a massive package.

The politics ahead are uncertain. More than a dozen House Republicans have told Johnson and GOP leaders they will not support cuts to the health care safety net programs that residents back home depend on. Trump himself has shied away from a repeat of his first term, vowing there will be no cuts to Medicaid.

One Republican, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, warned his colleagues in an op-ed Monday that cutting health care to pay for tax breaks would be "morally wrong and politically suicidal."

All told, 11 committees in the House have been compiling their sections of the package as Republicans seek at least $1.5 trillion in savings to help cover the cost of preserving the 2017 tax breaks, which were approved during Trump's first term and are expiring at the end of the year.

But the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee has been among the most watched. The committee was instructed to come up with $880 billion in savings and reached that goal, primarily with the health care cuts, but also by rolling back Biden-era green energy programs. The preliminary CBO analysis said the committee's proposals would reduce the deficit by $912 billion over the decade — with at least $715 billion coming from the health provisions.

Central to the savings are changes to Medicaid, which provides almost free health care to more than 70 million Americans, and the Affordable Care Act, which has expanded in the 15 years since it was first approved to cover millions more.

To be eligible for Medicaid, there would be new "community engagement requirements" of at least 80 hours per month of work, education or service for able-bodied adults without dependents. People would also have to verify their eligibility to be in the program twice a year, rather than just once. The bill also adds a more rigorous income verification for those who enroll in the Affordable Care Act's health care coverage.

This is likely to lead to more churn in the program and present hurdles for people to stay covered, especially if they have to drive far to a local benefits office to verify their income in person. But Republicans say it will ensure that the program is administered to those who qualify for it.

Some Medicaid recipients who make more than 100% of the federal poverty level — about $32,000 a year for a family of four — would be required to pay out-of-pocket costs, too, for some services. Those fees, which would not apply to emergency room visits, prenatal care, pediatric visits or primary care checkups, would be limited to $35 per visit.

And applicants could not qualify for Medicaid if they have a home that is valued at more than $1 million.

The proposed bill also targets any immigrants who are living in the country illegally or without documentation. It reduces by 10% the share the federal government pays to states — such as New York or California — that allow those immigrants to sign up for Medicaid. To qualify for the ACA coverage, enrollees would have to prove they are "lawfully present."

Other moves would shift costs to all states.

Many states have expanded their Medicaid rosters thanks to federal incentives, but the legislation would cut a 5% boost that was put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic.

There would be a freeze on the so-called provider tax that some states use to help pay for large portions of their Medicaid programs. The extra tax often leads to higher payments from the federal government, which critics say is a loophole that allows states to inflate their budgets.

The energy portions of the legislation run far fewer pages, but include rollbacks of climate-change strategies President Joe Biden signed into law in the Inflation Reduction Act.

It proposes rescinding funds for a range of energy loans and investment programs while providing expedited permitting for natural gas development and oil pipelines.

​Harv's Corner

State climate scientists abruptly cut
White House dismisses contributors to National Climate Assessment, a key monitoring tool.
Story by KRISTOFFER TIGUE • Photo by RENÉE JONES SCHNEIDER • The Minnesota Star Tribune

State climate scientists abruptly cut - White House dismisses contributors to National Climate Assessment, a key monitoring tool.

Melissa Kenney has spent decades researching how to best convey scientific information to the public.

That expertise has landed Kenney, director of research at the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment, on several high-profile projects, including Minnesota's mandatory report on how the state will safeguard clean water for the next 50 years.

Last year, Kenney was asked to contribute to the National Climate Assessment, the foremost report on how climate change is affecting the United States. It would be her third time contributing to the report, which typically comes out every four to five years. The next edition was to be released in 2027.

But last week, Kenney received an email from the Trump administration telling her the scope of the report was "being re-evaluated" and that her services were no longer required.

"Thank you for your participation in the 6th National Climate Assessment," the email said. "We are now releasing all current assessment participants from their roles."

Kenney is one of nearly 400 scientists who were dismissed from the report, which Congress mandated under the Global Change Research Act of 1990. Earlier in April, the White House also terminated its contract with ICF International. The global consulting firm provides much of the staffing for the U.S.  Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), the federal agency charged with drafting the climate assessments.

The Trump administration has widely targeted climate initiatives in its effort to slash federal spending. Upon taking office in January, President Donald Trump for the second time pulled the United States out of the Paris Climate Agreement, the international treaty to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy, have frozen tens of billions of dollars in climate related grants and loans since February. Trump's most recent budget proposal would cut funding for the EPA and the National Science Foundation in half.

Still, the email took Kenney and other National Climate Assessment contributors by surprise.

"I had always been under the naive impression that making those major changes would be hard. Congress is supposed to be the one who's allocating resources," Jay Austin, a physics professor at the University of Minnesota Duluth, told the Minnesota Star Tribune. "I'm missing something, or things are really off the rails."

The White House didn't respond to questions from the Minnesota Star Tribune, but said in a statement that "as plans develop for the assessment, there may be future opportunities to contribute or engage."

Austin is one of at least eight Minnesotans who contributed to the Fifth National Climate Assessment, the edition released in 2023.

Climate scientists and advocates say the report is a valuable resource for policymakers and the public. It synthesizes tens of thousands of peer-reviewed studies that document sea-level rise, the frequency of extreme weather events, changes in biodiversity and other phenomena.

Anyone who reads the Midwest chapter of the Fifth National Assessment would learn that the region has become 5%-15% wetter over the decades, when comparing the most recent 30-year averages, and that states like Minnesota are experiencing warming most notably during the winter.

The USGCRP's funding for fiscal year 2023 amounted to $4 billion, but that doesn't fund the vast majority of the contributors.

"They're zeroing out this ... federally mandated project,"

Austin said. "But the hundreds of scientists that are actually doing the writing and doing the real work are all volunteers."

John Baker, a retired U.S. Department of Agriculture researcher who was coordinating lead author for the assessment's Midwest chapter, said the report benefits numerous constituents, including law-makers, nonprofit leaders and businesses.

One of the metrics tracked by the assessment is how the nation's flood plains are changing, which Baker said is crucial information for property insurers. In recent years, home insurance premiums have skyrocketed in states like California and Florida as the changing climate increases the frequency and severity of wildfires, floods and other extreme weather.

"Actuaries can only work with past data, so it's a real challenge if you're in a rapidly changing environment and you're seeing increased likelihood of flooding or increased risk of severe thunderstorms,"

Baker said. Without regularly updated data, "it makes it pretty hard to figure out, 'How do you price insurance?' "

The perils of flooding became obvious last summer in Minnesota.
Record rainfall caused a partial failure of the Rapidan Dam near Mankato, destroying a home and nearby business.

Kenney's work on the Fifth Climate Assessment focused on how communities are adapting to climate change. Last year's flooding demonstrates why the report matters, she said.

"We need to be thinking about how we manage dams proactively and put in flood abatement measures, not just for the types of rain events we have already seen but for those that scientists say are possible given a changing climate," she said.

Marissa Ahlering is the science director for the Nature Conservancy's operations in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota and also contributed to the climate report. She said her nonprofit uses the assessment to help plan their conservation and restoration efforts, including how best to engage with landowners whose property might overlap with a project.

"We use it in the Nature Conservancy to help us inform our actions," Ahlering said. "That is one of the goals: To synthesize this information so it can be used by local communities, policymakers — at the state and federal levels."

Kenney said the report also provides useful information for Minnesotans who care about the state's forests. The habitable zone for some species will be pushed farther north as the state warms, meaning some plants that grow in southern Minnesota may not in the future.

"If we want robust forest systems that are climate adaptive, we actually have to be thinking about that now, what the seed banks should be, where they should go, where it makes sense," she said.

Now it's unclear what will come of the next climate assessment, Baker said, adding that he was "extremely disappointed" to see so many scientists, many of them at the top of their fields, taken off the project.
"It really is an apolitical process," he said. "The whole reason it was mandated in the first place was to inform policymakers."

Austin said he "would not want to be a young scientist graduating into this environment."

Kenney said that whatever happens, she hopes the next assessment is as robust as the previous ones, which undergo multiple reviews, including by federal agencies, as well as a lengthy public comment period.

"The reason why we know that the previous assessments are rigorous is because we had hundreds of scientists who have the expertise to evaluate tens of thousands of research papers in a very short period of time," she said.

​[email protected]

Harv's Corner 

​Tariff woes starting to come ashore
Canceled orders from China set to trigger tidal wave of higher prices.
By ANA SWANSON The New York Times

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, factories in China shut down and global shipping traffic slowed. Within a matter of a few weeks, products began disappearing from U.S. store shelves and American firms that depend on foreign materials were going out of business.

A similar trend is beginning to play out, but this time the catalyst is President Donald Trump's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145%, an amount so steep that much of the trade between the United States and China has ground to a halt. Fewer massive container ships have been plying the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, far fewer Chinese goods will arrive on American shores.

While high tariffs on Chinese products have been in place since early April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed that much. But some companies are now starting to raise their prices. And experts say that the effects will become more and more obvious in the coming weeks, as a tidal wave of change stemming from canceled orders in Chinese factories works its way around the world to the United States.

The number of massive container ships carrying metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products departing China for the United States has plummeted by about a third this month.

The reason consumers haven't felt many of the effects yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. It then takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April are just starting to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports, a trend that should intensify.

By late May or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The major effects on the U.S. economy of shutting down trade with China will start to become apparent in the summer of 2025, when the United States might slip into a recession, said Torsten Slok, an economist at Apollo.

"U.S. consumers will within a few weeks see empty shelves in clothing stores, toy stores, hardware stores and retail drugstores, and higher prices of the goods that still are on the shelves," he said.

Molson Hart, CEO of Viahart, a toy company, wrote on the social platform X: "It's almost like we're speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn't see it yet. By the time he does, it'll be too late to hit the brakes."

The decline in Chinese imports w as amplified Friday, when the United States eliminated so-called de minimis treatment for Chinese goods. The rule had allowed products up to $800 to avoid tariffs as long as they are shipped directly to consumers. It has boosted the business model of companies such as Temu and Shein, and it has resulted in a surge of individually addressed packages to the United States, many of which are shipped by air.

Supporters of the change say that this tariff loophole has given Chinese shippers an unfair advantage and hurt American businesses. But the decision to get rid of it is already resulting in higher prices for U.S. consumers. And the change is expected to weigh on airlines and private carriers like FedEx, which have steady business delivering small-dollar goods.

Port workers and logistics companies have been expecting their own disruptions. At the port of Los Angeles, the main entry point for Chinese products arriving in the United States, imports surged in recent months as businesses and consumers tried to stock up on goods in advance of the tariffs coming into effect. But that activity has now started to decline.

The number of containers arriving at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to drop more than 35% next week compared with the same period last year, port data shows. Gene Seroka, the port's executive director, said that a quarter of the ships that had been scheduled for May had canceled because of light volume.

As of about two weeks ago, goods coming into the port from China have been "very few and far between," Seroka said.

Data shows that sales of heavy trucks have fallen sharply, too, suggesting that companies in the logistics space expect to be moving fewer goods in the future.

Trade experts say that companies have stockpiled enough inventory in recent months that, if the White House reverses course soon and significantly drops tariffs on China, much of the pain for the U.S. economy and consumers can be avoided. Data from the Institute for Supply Management shows that U.S. inventories are at their highest level in more than two years.

Gabriel Wildau, a managing director at Teneo, who advises firms on doing business with China, said Chinese goods that U.S. retailers had stockpiled in the first three months of the year would give stores some time before they would need to raise prices. But if the situation is not changed quickly, American consumers will feel the impact of trade changes unfold over the next three to six months, he said.

"We're going to have higher prices and, in some cases, empty shelves," he said.

Trump officials have admitted that there could be some disruptions for consumers. The president seemed to acknowledge Wednesday that his trade changes could lead to fewer goods and higher prices.
"You know, somebody said, 'Oh, the shelves are going to be open,' " Trump said from the White House. "Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally."

But administration officials have said any pain will be minimal. At a White House briefing Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he did not expect to see supply chain shocks from U.S. tariffs on China. "I think retailers have managed their inventory in front of this," he said.

Some firms that are in a more fragile financial position have not been able to stockpile and are rapidly being forced out of business. Even if the Trump administration finds a way to reduce its tariffs on China, it's not clear that the levies will fall enough to meaningfully restart trade.

Many firms say that tariffs above 50% on Chinese imports are enough to stop trade entirely. With tariffs now at a minimum of 145%, and in some cases much higher, that would mean that the Trump administration may have to drop its China tariffs by at least 100 percentage points to meaningfully restart the flow of goods.

Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a supply chain company, said that, even before the president hiked tariffs on China to 145% this month, the tariffs the Trump administration had put on China were high, at a minimum of 54%.

"The reality is that 54% was already an incredibly high tariff rate," Petersen said. "It depends on how far they walk it back. If they walk it back to 25%, maybe this all becomes a nonevent."

145%
Minimum tariff on Chinese imports. Many companies say that above 50% would stop trade .
​
35%
Expected drop in containers arriving in Los Angeles next week compared with same time last year.